| Source | Market | Burnham price | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
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The daily check covers public prediction markets and bookmaker pages where a current public price is available.
How to read the odds
A prediction market price of 0.25 is usually read as roughly a 25% implied probability before fees, spread and liquidity effects. A bookmaker fractional price such as 9/4 implies roughly 31% before margin. These are not neutral truths. They are market prices shaped by money, liquidity, news and the design of the market.
The three hurdles
Parliament
Burnham must be an MP to become Labour leader and Prime Minister. That makes Makerfield the gate.
Labour rules
A leadership contest requires parliamentary support. Member polling matters, but MPs decide whether the race begins.
Timing
Markets often price the next few weeks heavily. A delayed transition can lower short term PM odds even if leadership odds remain strong.
Liquidity
Political markets can move dramatically on small volumes. Always check the source and not just the headline number.